MOSCOW: The independent Novaya Gazeta newspaper and Russian prosecutors know the identity of the man who killed Anna Politkovskaya, the newspaper's correspondent who was slain in a contract-style killing last year, according to the newspaper's editor and a special report planned for publication Monday.
But the identity of the person who ordered the killing has not been determined and the man who shot Politkovskaya has not been found and arrested, the editor said. He added that more time was needed to investigate the case.
"The organizer is free," said the paper's editor in chief, Dmitry Muratov. "This crime cannot be considered solved."
The new details shed further light on a case that has drawn international scrutiny and suggested that a degree of progress has been made in a investigation that Politkovskaya's friends and supporters have worried had been stalled and undermined by internal disarray.
Politkovskaya, a tireless critic of the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin, was an advocate of victims of human rights abuses, especially those from the two wars in Chechnya since 1994. She was shot multiple times with a pistol at the entrance to her apartment building on Oct. 7, 2006.
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Text: Interview with investigator in journalist's murder
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Contenders for Columbus's legacy turn to DNA
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The killing, which coincided with Putin's 54th birthday and became another in a string of murders of journalists in Russia, drew international condemnation and demands for a vigorous investigation.
In the year since, it has been framed as a challenge to Putin's legacy - an example of the criminality, corruption and culture of impunity beneath the surface of the partial recovery of Russia's economy and the Kremlin's confidence that have accompanied Putin's rule.
The case has proved a challenge to Novaya Gazeta as well. Long a sharp critic of Russia's government, the paper has cooperated closely with the team of investigators from the federal General Prosecutor's office, and withheld publishing many details of both the prosecutors' work and the newspaper's own parallel investigation.
Last Friday, as editors and reporters put the last touches on a special edition of the newspaper to mark the one-year anniversary of the killing, Muratov said the special report would commemorate Politkovskaya and disclose important new information. But it would not be a full accounting of what the editors know.
Instead, Muratov said, he was focused on helping prosecutors glean the remaining facts required to arrest both the gunman and the man who hired him.
Eleven people have been arrested in the case so far, and nine have been held on charges, Muratov said. He added that the suspects in custody were middlemen and accomplices in the crime, but that important suspects remain at large, and the newspaper is taking care not to compromise the investigation with leaks.
"My main task is not to give interviews and to write stories," Muratov said. "I want the bastards in jail."
Muratov provided advance copies of the two main articles of the special issue to The New York Times. One is an extended interview with Petros Garibyan, the prosecutor leading the government's investigation.
Garibyan's account differed slightly from Muratov's, saying that 10 men were in custody thus far, not nine. But he agreed that the identity of the man who shot Politkovskaya has been established.
"We have not charged the killer yet, but we know who he is," Garibyan said, according to the interview. Garibyan did not answer several calls on his cellphone on Sunday.
The second article, called "Anna and the Clown," is a description of the ordeal of Eduard Ponikarov, who in 2002, the article said, was beaten for hours by several men, including then-Major Pavel Ryaguzov of the FSB, the domestic successor to the KGB.
Ryaguzov sought to torture Ponikarov into submission with the goal of making him an FSB informant, code-named "Clown," who could be ruled by fear, Muratov said.
Instead, Ponikarov survived and lodged formal complaints with the authorities. But the case gained no traction and no one was punished, although Ryaguzov and an accomplice were identified, according to the special report.
Ryaguzov was later promoted to colonel. He is now one of the suspects detained in the Politkovskaya case and has been accused by prosecutors of assisting Politkovskaya's killers by giving them her home address.
Muratov and the special report suggest that the handling of the Ponikarov affair was an example of the culture of impunity for law enforcement officers in Russia that contributed to Politkovskaya's death.
If the men who tormented Ponikarov had been arrested in 2002, the newspaper's report says, "perhaps Anna Politkovskaya would still be alive."
Ponikarov, reached at home by telephone on Sunday, confirmed that Novaya Gazeta's account of his beating at the hands of the FSB officer was accurate.
Yuri Chaika, Russia's prosecutor general, said in August that Politkovskaya's killing had been ordered from abroad with the aim of destabilizing Russia. Muratov said last week that he knew of no evidence of foreign involvement and that he believed that Politkovskaya was killed because she was investigating corruption within Russia.
"According to our opinion, she touched upon the financial interests of people," he said. "And they decided to make her silent."
Muratov also distanced himself from Kremlin detractors who say that Putin directly ordered the crime. He offered a more nuanced view, saying that Putin's rule has allowed a climate in which journalists have been killed with impunity, but that the Russian president did not put out Politkovskaya's murder for hire.
Instead, he said, the Kremlin has built a regime in which her death is assumed to be allowed, and powerful criminals within the government and law enforcement agencies do as they please
"The power has created a climate in which journalists are enemies, democracy is not an efficient way of management or rule, and the special services are a new ruling class, a ruling elite, to which everything is permitted," he said. "When there is no parliamentary or public control of the special services, it is this atmosphere of censorship and permissiveness that brought this result."
2007年10月8日星期一
Seeking Columbus's origins, with a swab
PARIS: Intruders, apparently drunk, broke into the Musée d'Orsay here early Sunday and punched a hole in a renowned work by the Impressionist master Claude Monet, "Le Pont d'Argenteuil."
A surveillance camera caught a group of four or five people entering the museum, on the Left Bank of the Seine River. An alarm sounded and the group fled, but not before damaging the invaluable painting, Culture Minister Christine Albanel said on the radio station France-Info. No arrests had been made Sunday night.
Albanel said the painting could be restored, but she deplored what she said was an attack on "our memory, our heritage." An aide to the minister said a punch had left a 10-centimeter, or 4-inch, tear in the painting.
Monet was part of the 19th-century Impressionist movement, experimenting notably with light and color. "Le Pont d'Argenteuil" shows a view of the Seine at a rural bend, featuring a bridge and boats.
Albanel said on France-Info that she would seek improved security for French museums and stronger sanctions against those who desecrate art. "This is not tolerable," she said.
Today in Europe
Vandals puncture a Monet painting at Musée d'Orsay in Paris
Contenders for Columbus's legacy turn to DNA
Pioneering 17th century British scientist's notes now online
The break-in occurred as Paris held its annual all-night festival, which brings thousands of people into the streets for concerts and exhibits.
A surveillance camera caught a group of four or five people entering the museum, on the Left Bank of the Seine River. An alarm sounded and the group fled, but not before damaging the invaluable painting, Culture Minister Christine Albanel said on the radio station France-Info. No arrests had been made Sunday night.
Albanel said the painting could be restored, but she deplored what she said was an attack on "our memory, our heritage." An aide to the minister said a punch had left a 10-centimeter, or 4-inch, tear in the painting.
Monet was part of the 19th-century Impressionist movement, experimenting notably with light and color. "Le Pont d'Argenteuil" shows a view of the Seine at a rural bend, featuring a bridge and boats.
Albanel said on France-Info that she would seek improved security for French museums and stronger sanctions against those who desecrate art. "This is not tolerable," she said.
Today in Europe
Vandals puncture a Monet painting at Musée d'Orsay in Paris
Contenders for Columbus's legacy turn to DNA
Pioneering 17th century British scientist's notes now online
The break-in occurred as Paris held its annual all-night festival, which brings thousands of people into the streets for concerts and exhibits.
Seeking Columbus's origins, with a swab 2
But some petitioners think it is a waste of time to scour the phone book for Columbus's long-lost kin. Insisting that they know who Columbus's father really was, they are asking Lorente to perform a 500-year postdated paternity test. The government council president of Majorca, for instance, has paid him to examine the exhumed remains of Prince Carlos of Viana, the one-time heir to the Catalonian crown who reportedly fathered a son with a woman on the island whose last name was Colom.
The vials of royal DNA in Lorente's freezer also include contributions from two living members of the now deposed Portuguese royal line: those of the Duke of Bragança and the Count of Ribeira Grande who argue that Columbus was a member of their family — the product of an extramarital affair involving a Portuguese prince.
"This is the true story, forget the Italians, forget the Spanish," said Count Jose Ribeira, 47, a real estate developer in Lisbon who attended the dedication of a new Columbus monument last year in the Portuguese town of Cuba that claims to be Columbus's birthplace. If it is, all three samples should contain the same Portuguese genetic imprint.
But this year, anyway, the Columbus Day parade in New York will feature Maserati sports cars, flag throwers from Siena and Lidia Bastianich, the Italian cooking show host, as grand marshal.
Those who had hoped DNA would crash the Italian party expected a genetic pronouncement from the scientists on the 500th anniversary of Columbus's death last May. Or last Columbus Day. Surely by this one. After all those centuries in a crypt, however, a mere trace of DNA was all that could be extracted from Columbus's bones, and Lorente has said he is loath to use it indiscriminately.
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To make things even tougher, he has found that Catalonian Coloms and Genoese Colombos are so closely related it is hard to distinguish them with the standard Y-chromosome tests. So he is searching for more subtle differences that would allow him to link Columbus to a single lineage.
"My heart," Albardaner said, "will not endure so many delays."
Others have accused Lorente of nationalist bias, of covering up results that suggest Columbus was a Jew and of withholding a historical treasure from the Western world.
"Will Lorente continue to hide what the scientists know concerning Columbus's DNA?" asked Peter Dickson, a retired CIA analyst whose self-published book on Columbus argues that he was part French, part Italian, part Spanish and part Jewish, in an e-mail message to fellow Columbus buffs. "Will he remain silent on Columbus Day once again?"
Lorente says he will. And in the absence of data, rumors are flying.
Olga Rickards, a Lorente collaborator at Tor Vergata University in Rome, has been quoted as saying that she "wouldn't bet on Columbus being Spanish." A graduate student of Lorente's who had studied the Colombo DNA led Italian newspapers to believe Columbus was from Lombardy, north of Genoa, although she had apparently never seen Columbus's DNA. And Nito Verdera, a journalist from the Balaeric island of Ibiza, who says the explorer was a Catalan-speaking Ibizan crypto-Jew, cited leaks from Lorente's team that link Columbus to North Africa.
"I'm very sorry about the great expectation among some historians that they all want the DNA to confirm their hypothesis," Lorente said. "But science needs its time and has its pace."
If Columbus was an adopted name, as some scholars believe, tests of Coloms and Colombos will have been in vain. Moreover, with dozens of generations separating all those Coloms, Colombos, princes and counts from Columbus's time, a long-hidden adulterous liaison could have severed the Y-chromosome-and-surname link.
Even with a match questions will remain. What if Coloms moved to Genoa or Colombos to Barcelona? Today's distinct regional identities may not be reflected in the genetic code of the earlier era.
Albardaner still brings Columbus novices to the Historic Archive of Protocols in Barcelona, where they can hold a yellowed note from the 15th century filled with the calligraphic scrawl of the man he believes stumbled upon the Caribbean while looking for a western route to India.
He is less sure now that there will be a precise answer to who Columbus was or where he was from, but he is still hoping it will come from the DNA.
The vials of royal DNA in Lorente's freezer also include contributions from two living members of the now deposed Portuguese royal line: those of the Duke of Bragança and the Count of Ribeira Grande who argue that Columbus was a member of their family — the product of an extramarital affair involving a Portuguese prince.
"This is the true story, forget the Italians, forget the Spanish," said Count Jose Ribeira, 47, a real estate developer in Lisbon who attended the dedication of a new Columbus monument last year in the Portuguese town of Cuba that claims to be Columbus's birthplace. If it is, all three samples should contain the same Portuguese genetic imprint.
But this year, anyway, the Columbus Day parade in New York will feature Maserati sports cars, flag throwers from Siena and Lidia Bastianich, the Italian cooking show host, as grand marshal.
Those who had hoped DNA would crash the Italian party expected a genetic pronouncement from the scientists on the 500th anniversary of Columbus's death last May. Or last Columbus Day. Surely by this one. After all those centuries in a crypt, however, a mere trace of DNA was all that could be extracted from Columbus's bones, and Lorente has said he is loath to use it indiscriminately.
Today in Americas
Seeking Columbus's origins, with a swab
Disease toll raises fears in a struggling New England town
Thousands of walruses flock to Alaska shore
To make things even tougher, he has found that Catalonian Coloms and Genoese Colombos are so closely related it is hard to distinguish them with the standard Y-chromosome tests. So he is searching for more subtle differences that would allow him to link Columbus to a single lineage.
"My heart," Albardaner said, "will not endure so many delays."
Others have accused Lorente of nationalist bias, of covering up results that suggest Columbus was a Jew and of withholding a historical treasure from the Western world.
"Will Lorente continue to hide what the scientists know concerning Columbus's DNA?" asked Peter Dickson, a retired CIA analyst whose self-published book on Columbus argues that he was part French, part Italian, part Spanish and part Jewish, in an e-mail message to fellow Columbus buffs. "Will he remain silent on Columbus Day once again?"
Lorente says he will. And in the absence of data, rumors are flying.
Olga Rickards, a Lorente collaborator at Tor Vergata University in Rome, has been quoted as saying that she "wouldn't bet on Columbus being Spanish." A graduate student of Lorente's who had studied the Colombo DNA led Italian newspapers to believe Columbus was from Lombardy, north of Genoa, although she had apparently never seen Columbus's DNA. And Nito Verdera, a journalist from the Balaeric island of Ibiza, who says the explorer was a Catalan-speaking Ibizan crypto-Jew, cited leaks from Lorente's team that link Columbus to North Africa.
"I'm very sorry about the great expectation among some historians that they all want the DNA to confirm their hypothesis," Lorente said. "But science needs its time and has its pace."
If Columbus was an adopted name, as some scholars believe, tests of Coloms and Colombos will have been in vain. Moreover, with dozens of generations separating all those Coloms, Colombos, princes and counts from Columbus's time, a long-hidden adulterous liaison could have severed the Y-chromosome-and-surname link.
Even with a match questions will remain. What if Coloms moved to Genoa or Colombos to Barcelona? Today's distinct regional identities may not be reflected in the genetic code of the earlier era.
Albardaner still brings Columbus novices to the Historic Archive of Protocols in Barcelona, where they can hold a yellowed note from the 15th century filled with the calligraphic scrawl of the man he believes stumbled upon the Caribbean while looking for a western route to India.
He is less sure now that there will be a precise answer to who Columbus was or where he was from, but he is still hoping it will come from the DNA.
Seeking Columbus's origins, with a swab 1
BARCELONA, Spain: When schoolchildren turn to the chapter on Christopher Columbus's humble origins as the son of a weaver in Genoa, they are not generally told that he might instead have been born out of wedlock to a Portuguese prince. Or that he might have been a Jew whose parents converted to escape the Spanish Inquisition. Or a rebel in the medieval kingdom of Catalonia.
Yet with little evidence to support them, multiple theories of Columbus's early years have long found devoted proponents among those who would claim alternative bragging rights to the famous explorer. And now, five centuries after he opened the door to the New World, Columbus's revisionist biographers have found a new hope for vindication.
The Age of Discovery has discovered DNA.
In 2004, a Spanish geneticist, Dr. Jose Lorente, extracted genetic material from a cache of Columbus's bones in Seville to settle a dispute about where he was buried. Ever since, he has been beset by amateur historians, government officials and self-styled Columbus relatives of multiple nationalities clamoring for a genetic retelling of the standard textbook tale.
Even adherents of the Italian orthodoxy concede that little is known about the provenance of the Great Navigator, who seems to have purposely obscured his past. But contenders for his legacy have no compunction about prospecting for his secrets in the cells he took to his grave. And the arrival on Oct. 8 of another anniversary of Columbus's first landfall in the Bahamas has only sharpened their appetite for a genetic verdict, preferably in their own favor.
Today in Americas
Seeking Columbus's origins, with a swab
Disease toll raises fears in a struggling New England town
Thousands of walruses flock to Alaska shore
A Genoese Cristoforo Colombo almost certainly did exist. Archives record his birth and early life. But there is little to tie that man to the one who crossed the Atlantic in 1492. Snippets from Columbus's life point all around the southern European coast. He kept books in Catalan and his handwriting has, according to some, a Catalonian flair. He married a Portuguese noblewoman. He wrote in Castilian. He decorated his letters with a Hebrew cartouche.
Since it seems now that the best bet for deducing Columbus's true hometown is to look for a genetic match in places where he might have lived, hundreds of Spaniards, Italians, and even a few Frenchmen have happily swabbed their cheeks to supply cells for comparison.
"You would be proud to know that the man that goes to America the first time was Catalan," said Jordi Colom, 51, an executive at a local television station whose saliva sample will help test the contention that Columbus was born in Catalonia, the once-independent eastern region of modern Spain that still fosters its own language, culture and designs on independence.
No chance, said Renato Colombo, 62, a retired Italian engineer who proffered his DNA to reassert his nation's hold on the status quo. "It has never been in doubt that he was from Liguria," the region in northwest Italy of which Genoa is the capital, he insisted. "In his personality, there are the characteristics of the Genoese, mostly represented by his project and his visceral attachment to money and his determination."
Colom and Colombo are both "Columbus" in their native tongues. And along with their names, each inherited from his father a Y chromosome — a sliver of DNA passed exclusively from father to son — which would have been virtually unchanged since the 15th century. A Columbus match to either man's Y chromosome would tie him to that paternal line's Italian or Catalonian home.
"What I want to write is the final book on Columbus, and I will not be able to do it without science to settle this," said Francesc Albardaner, who was seduced by the possibility that DNA — a tool whose answers are treated as indisputable fact in courtrooms and on TV shows — would endorse his deeply held belief in the Catalonian Columbus.
Albardaner, a Barcelona architect, took more than three months off work, called 2,000 Coloms and persuaded 225 of them to scrape their cheeks at his Center for Columbus Studies in Barcelona. The swabs along with 100 Colombos collected in Italy are being analyzed by Lorente at the University of Granada and scientists in Rome.
A Colom match could overturn conventional wisdom about the nationality, class, religion, and motives of the man who began the age of American colonization. On the other hand, an association with Colombo DNA would cement Italy's national pride in a man who remains a hero to many, complaints from American Indians he slaughtered, Africans he enslaved and Vikings who got there first notwithstanding.
Yet with little evidence to support them, multiple theories of Columbus's early years have long found devoted proponents among those who would claim alternative bragging rights to the famous explorer. And now, five centuries after he opened the door to the New World, Columbus's revisionist biographers have found a new hope for vindication.
The Age of Discovery has discovered DNA.
In 2004, a Spanish geneticist, Dr. Jose Lorente, extracted genetic material from a cache of Columbus's bones in Seville to settle a dispute about where he was buried. Ever since, he has been beset by amateur historians, government officials and self-styled Columbus relatives of multiple nationalities clamoring for a genetic retelling of the standard textbook tale.
Even adherents of the Italian orthodoxy concede that little is known about the provenance of the Great Navigator, who seems to have purposely obscured his past. But contenders for his legacy have no compunction about prospecting for his secrets in the cells he took to his grave. And the arrival on Oct. 8 of another anniversary of Columbus's first landfall in the Bahamas has only sharpened their appetite for a genetic verdict, preferably in their own favor.
Today in Americas
Seeking Columbus's origins, with a swab
Disease toll raises fears in a struggling New England town
Thousands of walruses flock to Alaska shore
A Genoese Cristoforo Colombo almost certainly did exist. Archives record his birth and early life. But there is little to tie that man to the one who crossed the Atlantic in 1492. Snippets from Columbus's life point all around the southern European coast. He kept books in Catalan and his handwriting has, according to some, a Catalonian flair. He married a Portuguese noblewoman. He wrote in Castilian. He decorated his letters with a Hebrew cartouche.
Since it seems now that the best bet for deducing Columbus's true hometown is to look for a genetic match in places where he might have lived, hundreds of Spaniards, Italians, and even a few Frenchmen have happily swabbed their cheeks to supply cells for comparison.
"You would be proud to know that the man that goes to America the first time was Catalan," said Jordi Colom, 51, an executive at a local television station whose saliva sample will help test the contention that Columbus was born in Catalonia, the once-independent eastern region of modern Spain that still fosters its own language, culture and designs on independence.
No chance, said Renato Colombo, 62, a retired Italian engineer who proffered his DNA to reassert his nation's hold on the status quo. "It has never been in doubt that he was from Liguria," the region in northwest Italy of which Genoa is the capital, he insisted. "In his personality, there are the characteristics of the Genoese, mostly represented by his project and his visceral attachment to money and his determination."
Colom and Colombo are both "Columbus" in their native tongues. And along with their names, each inherited from his father a Y chromosome — a sliver of DNA passed exclusively from father to son — which would have been virtually unchanged since the 15th century. A Columbus match to either man's Y chromosome would tie him to that paternal line's Italian or Catalonian home.
"What I want to write is the final book on Columbus, and I will not be able to do it without science to settle this," said Francesc Albardaner, who was seduced by the possibility that DNA — a tool whose answers are treated as indisputable fact in courtrooms and on TV shows — would endorse his deeply held belief in the Catalonian Columbus.
Albardaner, a Barcelona architect, took more than three months off work, called 2,000 Coloms and persuaded 225 of them to scrape their cheeks at his Center for Columbus Studies in Barcelona. The swabs along with 100 Colombos collected in Italy are being analyzed by Lorente at the University of Granada and scientists in Rome.
A Colom match could overturn conventional wisdom about the nationality, class, religion, and motives of the man who began the age of American colonization. On the other hand, an association with Colombo DNA would cement Italy's national pride in a man who remains a hero to many, complaints from American Indians he slaughtered, Africans he enslaved and Vikings who got there first notwithstanding.
中国金融30年：你和你的财富管理
如果“月光宝盒”把你一下子放回到1978年，我猜想，你会全然不习惯周遭的生活方式以及“财富密码”。那时，你辛苦了一年，创造人均GDP计有381元(推算，当时甚至没有GDP这个统计项目)；你节俭了一年，年底存入银行存款计有21.88元；想去找个证券营业部炒股票？你会发现，身边的人对你这个“无理愿望”毫无回应；作为一位金融专业人士，当你说起期货、债券甚至衍生品的时候，大家会认为你简直是“天外来客”。最后，身边的人们会很同情地看着你问：你有粮票吗？
当“月光宝盒”把你重新送回今天时，我猜想，你会长舒一口气。那么，在惊魂安定之后，请和我们一起来回溯这过往的中国金融财富30年，这将有助于你对刚才的“跨时空体验”形成更深刻的理解。为了给记忆留下明晰的刻度，我们定义了若干“元年”：1979年，国内保险业务恢复，是为“保险元年”；1981年，国债发行恢复，是为“国债元年”；1986年，首个证券柜台交易点设立，是为“证券元年”；1990年，郑州商品交易所成立，是为“期货元年”；1994年，中国外汇交易中心诞生，是为“汇改元年”；1998年，首批证券投资基金启动，是为“基金元年”；2005年，股改启动，是为“股改元年”；2006年，中国金融全面对外开放，是为“金融开放元年”……这些错落有致的“元年”勾画出的，正是中国金融改革30年的轨迹，也是中国金融财富变迁30年的图谱。
和这些“元年”交织在一起的，如同《时代周刊》的年度人物所表达的那样，是作为个人的“你”在中国金融财富变迁中角色的凸显。人均存款(原始数据为城镇居民存款)是一个最简单的数据，你面对的将是一条陡峭的曲线：从1978年的不足22元，攀升到到当下近13000元(按当年价格计算)，增长了近600倍。考虑到“金融脱媒”因素，个人金融财富的积累速度其实还要远高于储蓄存款的增长速度。看看同期人均GDP的数据，从1978年的381元，增长到目前的近16000元(按当年价格计算)，增长40余倍。两相比较不难得出一个结论：在国民财富的分配中，个人财富的增长远快于整体GDP增长。这意味着，在国家和个人的财富分配中，“你”逐渐扮演了前所未有的“强势”角色。
而这恰恰是一系列改革，特别是金融改革的产物。更多地依赖市场而不是计划(政府)来配置金融资产，这是过往金融改革的精髓和方向——让商业银行恢复“商业”本色、通过更多的金融机构准入提高市场效率、让市场来决定资金和外汇的价格、给市场更多的金融产品和交易场所、给公司更多更市场化的融资机会，等等。金融市场化前行带来了两个令人欣喜的结果：一是得益于经济润滑剂——金融体系效率的提高，整个经济的效率得以提高；二是伴随着效率和产出的增加，个人所拥有的绝对和相对财富总量增加了，所谓“藏富于民”"讲的就是这个意思。
行文至此，我们可以来谈谈那个时髦的词——“财富管理”了。极大地扩展了个人理财(Personal Finance)的外延和基准，财富管理(Wealth Management)看起来有多个维度和更高的门槛：从个人的维度看，狭义财富管理更多针对高端富裕人士，正如一些财富报告中提出的HNWIs(High Net Wealth Individuals)，这也是一些消费金融机构的“私人银行”(Private Banking)部门不遗余力要锁定的人群。不过，广义财富管理的外延远不止于此，“国家财富管理”显然就是一个更为宏大的主题，也将聚集更多的财富存量。专业人士近来津津乐道的KIC、GIC、淡马锡、即将呱呱落地的CIC, 以及主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund)，都是这方面的关键词。
对于中国而言，和成熟的市场经济不同，“国家财富管理”还具有别样的非凡意义。由于我们行进在市场化的路途上，中国拥有全球罕见的“国有资产存量”，除了金融资产和国有企业的资产外，土地、矿山和自然资源都是国家财富的一部分，随着中国工业化和城市化的进程，这些财富还将以令人瞠目的速度增值。这些国家财富其实也是国民的财富，和每一个“你”息息相关。这部分国民财富的“财富管理”对于中国的可持续增长至关重要。充分运用现代金融工具对其进行管理，应当成为未来中国财富管理的核心内容。一些有识之士已经提出了极具建设性的方案：譬如，按照私人股权投资基金的合约模式机构化持有国有股权，实现保值增值；又如，将国家财富转化为现金，用于全民的社保体系构建，等等。
最后，让我们用一个令人头痛的关键词来结束“财富管理”这个令人愉悦的主题，那就是风险。一个有趣的现象是，金融创新一般是为了对冲风险而诞生，但在金融市场的漫漫长途中，创新却往往催生更大的风险甚至危机，很多衍生品都讲述了这样的故事。管理财富，亦即管理风险，在义无反顾地融入全球金融体系的门槛边，回首中国金融30年财富变迁，如何审慎规避风险，驾驭好财富管理，这将成为我们不能逃避的必修课。
当“月光宝盒”把你重新送回今天时，我猜想，你会长舒一口气。那么，在惊魂安定之后，请和我们一起来回溯这过往的中国金融财富30年，这将有助于你对刚才的“跨时空体验”形成更深刻的理解。为了给记忆留下明晰的刻度，我们定义了若干“元年”：1979年，国内保险业务恢复，是为“保险元年”；1981年，国债发行恢复，是为“国债元年”；1986年，首个证券柜台交易点设立，是为“证券元年”；1990年，郑州商品交易所成立，是为“期货元年”；1994年，中国外汇交易中心诞生，是为“汇改元年”；1998年，首批证券投资基金启动，是为“基金元年”；2005年，股改启动，是为“股改元年”；2006年，中国金融全面对外开放，是为“金融开放元年”……这些错落有致的“元年”勾画出的，正是中国金融改革30年的轨迹，也是中国金融财富变迁30年的图谱。
和这些“元年”交织在一起的，如同《时代周刊》的年度人物所表达的那样，是作为个人的“你”在中国金融财富变迁中角色的凸显。人均存款(原始数据为城镇居民存款)是一个最简单的数据，你面对的将是一条陡峭的曲线：从1978年的不足22元，攀升到到当下近13000元(按当年价格计算)，增长了近600倍。考虑到“金融脱媒”因素，个人金融财富的积累速度其实还要远高于储蓄存款的增长速度。看看同期人均GDP的数据，从1978年的381元，增长到目前的近16000元(按当年价格计算)，增长40余倍。两相比较不难得出一个结论：在国民财富的分配中，个人财富的增长远快于整体GDP增长。这意味着，在国家和个人的财富分配中，“你”逐渐扮演了前所未有的“强势”角色。
而这恰恰是一系列改革，特别是金融改革的产物。更多地依赖市场而不是计划(政府)来配置金融资产，这是过往金融改革的精髓和方向——让商业银行恢复“商业”本色、通过更多的金融机构准入提高市场效率、让市场来决定资金和外汇的价格、给市场更多的金融产品和交易场所、给公司更多更市场化的融资机会，等等。金融市场化前行带来了两个令人欣喜的结果：一是得益于经济润滑剂——金融体系效率的提高，整个经济的效率得以提高；二是伴随着效率和产出的增加，个人所拥有的绝对和相对财富总量增加了，所谓“藏富于民”"讲的就是这个意思。
行文至此，我们可以来谈谈那个时髦的词——“财富管理”了。极大地扩展了个人理财(Personal Finance)的外延和基准，财富管理(Wealth Management)看起来有多个维度和更高的门槛：从个人的维度看，狭义财富管理更多针对高端富裕人士，正如一些财富报告中提出的HNWIs(High Net Wealth Individuals)，这也是一些消费金融机构的“私人银行”(Private Banking)部门不遗余力要锁定的人群。不过，广义财富管理的外延远不止于此，“国家财富管理”显然就是一个更为宏大的主题，也将聚集更多的财富存量。专业人士近来津津乐道的KIC、GIC、淡马锡、即将呱呱落地的CIC, 以及主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund)，都是这方面的关键词。
对于中国而言，和成熟的市场经济不同，“国家财富管理”还具有别样的非凡意义。由于我们行进在市场化的路途上，中国拥有全球罕见的“国有资产存量”，除了金融资产和国有企业的资产外，土地、矿山和自然资源都是国家财富的一部分，随着中国工业化和城市化的进程，这些财富还将以令人瞠目的速度增值。这些国家财富其实也是国民的财富，和每一个“你”息息相关。这部分国民财富的“财富管理”对于中国的可持续增长至关重要。充分运用现代金融工具对其进行管理，应当成为未来中国财富管理的核心内容。一些有识之士已经提出了极具建设性的方案：譬如，按照私人股权投资基金的合约模式机构化持有国有股权，实现保值增值；又如，将国家财富转化为现金，用于全民的社保体系构建，等等。
最后，让我们用一个令人头痛的关键词来结束“财富管理”这个令人愉悦的主题，那就是风险。一个有趣的现象是，金融创新一般是为了对冲风险而诞生，但在金融市场的漫漫长途中，创新却往往催生更大的风险甚至危机，很多衍生品都讲述了这样的故事。管理财富，亦即管理风险，在义无反顾地融入全球金融体系的门槛边，回首中国金融30年财富变迁，如何审慎规避风险，驾驭好财富管理，这将成为我们不能逃避的必修课。
五大国际娱乐休闲项目上海路演 看好内地市场发展前景
在环球嘉年华、太阳马戏相继在上海成功举办后,又有一批大型娱乐项目将目光投向了内地市场。日前,香港创意时代公司和上海唐研公关顾问联合在光大会展中心召开项目推介会,一举推出“世界机器人展”、“威尼斯面具节”、“舞动欧洲嘉年华”、“烟火舞台剧”及“世界爬行动物展”等五个大型娱乐休闲项目,并公开征寻项目合作伙伴。上海旅游节组委会、浦东商会、上海浦东国际展览公司等30余家企业和机构均派代表出席了此次会议。
据了解,创意时代是香港最主要的大型展览、国外著名表演团体及宣传活动主办公司之一,“跨世纪机械人博览会”、每年一届的“慈善名人名厨美食嘉年华”等港岛大型活动都由其主办。此次推介会是创意时代首次正式现身内地市场,五个项目都由其从国外引进,并在香港成功举办过:“世界机器人展”将全面展示包括世界仿真度最高的机器美女——木户小姐、重达850公斤的喜马拉雅山机器人猿以及能够看护病人的医疗机器人在内当今世界最新最全的机器人;“烟火舞台剧”则是一种融合科技、艺术、音乐等元素的新型表演模式,随着情节的发展以及剧中人物情绪变化,烟火呈现方式都将各不相同;“世界爬行动物展”是世界各大洲爬行类动物的一个大集会,将给观众带来一场生动的科普教育课;“威尼斯面具节”和“舞动欧洲嘉年华”则都是具有悠久历史的欧洲传统狂欢活动,其中威尼斯历史上最早的面具狂欢节更可追溯至1268年5月2日。
“随着内地居民生活水平的大幅度提高,特别是在上海、北京等大城市,市民对于艺术娱乐的需求正在迅速增长。”创意时代总监姚伟基表示,“我们希望能够将最时尚、新兴的国外艺术流行趋势带到中国的各个城市,让更多的国民分享国外艺术的感悟。”据其介绍,五个项目目前均已进入实际运作,优先考虑在上海举办。
# # #
唐研文化传播有限公司简介
上海唐研公关顾问有限公司是基于市场经济高度发达,市场在商品流转环节中的地位日趋重要的情况下应运而生。随着中国经济的高速发展,越来越多的企业投身到中国的市场中来,产品在市场中的竞争越来越大。产品除了本身的质量好坏以外,市场策略及推广将成为关键。上海唐研公关顾问有限公司的特长就是利用旗下拥有不同专长的人才整合起来,形成一支强而有力的团队,为客户在市场的竞争中占得先机。
据了解,创意时代是香港最主要的大型展览、国外著名表演团体及宣传活动主办公司之一,“跨世纪机械人博览会”、每年一届的“慈善名人名厨美食嘉年华”等港岛大型活动都由其主办。此次推介会是创意时代首次正式现身内地市场,五个项目都由其从国外引进,并在香港成功举办过:“世界机器人展”将全面展示包括世界仿真度最高的机器美女——木户小姐、重达850公斤的喜马拉雅山机器人猿以及能够看护病人的医疗机器人在内当今世界最新最全的机器人;“烟火舞台剧”则是一种融合科技、艺术、音乐等元素的新型表演模式,随着情节的发展以及剧中人物情绪变化,烟火呈现方式都将各不相同;“世界爬行动物展”是世界各大洲爬行类动物的一个大集会,将给观众带来一场生动的科普教育课;“威尼斯面具节”和“舞动欧洲嘉年华”则都是具有悠久历史的欧洲传统狂欢活动,其中威尼斯历史上最早的面具狂欢节更可追溯至1268年5月2日。
“随着内地居民生活水平的大幅度提高,特别是在上海、北京等大城市,市民对于艺术娱乐的需求正在迅速增长。”创意时代总监姚伟基表示,“我们希望能够将最时尚、新兴的国外艺术流行趋势带到中国的各个城市,让更多的国民分享国外艺术的感悟。”据其介绍,五个项目目前均已进入实际运作,优先考虑在上海举办。
# # #
唐研文化传播有限公司简介
上海唐研公关顾问有限公司是基于市场经济高度发达,市场在商品流转环节中的地位日趋重要的情况下应运而生。随着中国经济的高速发展,越来越多的企业投身到中国的市场中来,产品在市场中的竞争越来越大。产品除了本身的质量好坏以外,市场策略及推广将成为关键。上海唐研公关顾问有限公司的特长就是利用旗下拥有不同专长的人才整合起来,形成一支强而有力的团队,为客户在市场的竞争中占得先机。
今年经济走势将高位稳定
今年以来，因食品价格涨幅较大，并推动居民消费价格提高，由此引发了人们对于我国经济走势的担心。作者认为：由于坚持目前的宏观调控政策，我国近期出现投资反弹的可能性不大；虽然CPI有所上涨，但国内消费增长比较稳定，对年度经济增长不会产生大的扰动；随着我国一系列限制“两高一资”产品出口政策措施逐渐地发挥作
用，我国出口增长也将逐步趋稳。
因此，从目前我国投资、消费、出口这三项需求的增长速度来看，我国经济的整体走势在2007年将保持高位稳定的态势。
决定经济增长水平的主要是投资、消费、出口这三项需求的增长速度，而从目前情况看，我们预计今年全年这三项需求增长将大体稳定。所以我国经济的整体走势也将保持高位稳定的态势。
投资反弹的可能性不大
今年以来，我国投资增长有加快迹象，我们认为，这主要是恢复性质。其主要根据是：第一，上年末投资增幅偏低。去年12月城镇固定资产投资仅增长10.4％。第二，当前投资增幅提高得不多。今年上半年固定资产投资同比增长25.9％，增幅较去年末提高1.9个百分点，但较去年同期仍然低3.9个百分点。2003年到2006年，我国固定资产投资年均增长26％，当前投资增长仍然保持这一水平。第三，今年新开工项目的增加，起点比较低，也属恢复性增长。
未来我国投资增长的趋势主要取决于市场变化和投资调控政策的实施情况。从市场方面看，竞争比较激烈，实体经济的投资预期回报率不高，企业投资比较谨慎，据国家统计局的调查，反映企业对市场前景预期的采购经理人指数已经开始下降。从投资调控政策看：近年来逐步形成了“两道闸门”、“一个门槛” 的调控手段，收到明显成效。尽管今年有地方政府换届、召开十七大等政治因素，但中央一直强调严格控制固定资产投资过快增长，继续严把“两道闸门”，完善市场准入制度，对典型违规事件坚持从严处理，因此，有利于抑制地方政府推动的投资明显反弹。
消费增长比较稳定
今年以来，消费持续活跃，对经济增长的源头性拉动作用逐步增强。由于消费需求取决于居民收入水平、收入预期和家庭预算约束，不会出现大起大落的情况，对今年经济增长不会产生大的扰动。需要注意的是，消费需求虽然不会对年度内的经济增长产生大的影响，但消费结构升级对中长期经济增长则具有决定性作用。我国1998年以后的内需不足，一个重要原因是国内消费结构升级没有启动；而2001年以后的消费需求趋旺，则主要是由于居民消费结构向改善居住、出行条件等方面的升级。
我们应当保持消费需求的活跃，逐步加大消费对经济增长的贡献。同时也要看到，这一轮消费结构升级以买房、装修和买车为消费热点，对房地产投资和重化工业发展的带动作用较强，对资源环境的压力也在加大。如果这些方面的消费需求过于旺盛，对稳定房地产市场、稳定房地产投资、稳定重化工原材料工业的发展，缓解经济增长与资源环境之间的矛盾，将产生负面影响。因此，对消费需求，特别是居民家庭的买房、买车活动，也要注意引导，使之保持稳定。
出口增长预计将逐步趋稳
首先，政府近期采取的限制“两高一资”产品出口等政策措施（分别于4月份、6月份、7月份实施），将越来越明显地发挥作用。据有关估计，全部“两高一资”产品大约占我国整个出口产品近三分之一，今年以来其出口增速明显高于总的出口增速。因此，相关政策的针对性是比较强的。此外，美国经济增速放慢会影响国际贸易量的扩大，对我国一般贸易出口将形成较大制约。
其次，人民币汇率升值步伐逐步加快，对一般贸易出口的约束将进一步显现。
第三，汇率升值和利用外资政策的调整，以及国内土地、劳动力成本的逐步提高，也将逐步约束外商投资增长，进而影响到加工贸易的增长。2003－2006年，加工贸易出口增速由34％降低到22％，今年上半年，继续保持在22％的增长水平，明显低于一般贸易出口增长。预计未来这一态势将继续保持。综合以上情况，预计下半年乃至全年出口增长将稳中趋降。
总结以上分析，可以认为，未来投资、消费、出口三项需求很可能呈现高位趋稳或略有降低的态势。在需求引导下，预计今年经济增长也将高位趋稳或略有降低。在继续坚持控制投资和出口过快增长的前提下，预计经济增长率将略有回落，全年GDP增长率在11％左右。
用，我国出口增长也将逐步趋稳。
因此，从目前我国投资、消费、出口这三项需求的增长速度来看，我国经济的整体走势在2007年将保持高位稳定的态势。
决定经济增长水平的主要是投资、消费、出口这三项需求的增长速度，而从目前情况看，我们预计今年全年这三项需求增长将大体稳定。所以我国经济的整体走势也将保持高位稳定的态势。
投资反弹的可能性不大
今年以来，我国投资增长有加快迹象，我们认为，这主要是恢复性质。其主要根据是：第一，上年末投资增幅偏低。去年12月城镇固定资产投资仅增长10.4％。第二，当前投资增幅提高得不多。今年上半年固定资产投资同比增长25.9％，增幅较去年末提高1.9个百分点，但较去年同期仍然低3.9个百分点。2003年到2006年，我国固定资产投资年均增长26％，当前投资增长仍然保持这一水平。第三，今年新开工项目的增加，起点比较低，也属恢复性增长。
未来我国投资增长的趋势主要取决于市场变化和投资调控政策的实施情况。从市场方面看，竞争比较激烈，实体经济的投资预期回报率不高，企业投资比较谨慎，据国家统计局的调查，反映企业对市场前景预期的采购经理人指数已经开始下降。从投资调控政策看：近年来逐步形成了“两道闸门”、“一个门槛” 的调控手段，收到明显成效。尽管今年有地方政府换届、召开十七大等政治因素，但中央一直强调严格控制固定资产投资过快增长，继续严把“两道闸门”，完善市场准入制度，对典型违规事件坚持从严处理，因此，有利于抑制地方政府推动的投资明显反弹。
消费增长比较稳定
今年以来，消费持续活跃，对经济增长的源头性拉动作用逐步增强。由于消费需求取决于居民收入水平、收入预期和家庭预算约束，不会出现大起大落的情况，对今年经济增长不会产生大的扰动。需要注意的是，消费需求虽然不会对年度内的经济增长产生大的影响，但消费结构升级对中长期经济增长则具有决定性作用。我国1998年以后的内需不足，一个重要原因是国内消费结构升级没有启动；而2001年以后的消费需求趋旺，则主要是由于居民消费结构向改善居住、出行条件等方面的升级。
我们应当保持消费需求的活跃，逐步加大消费对经济增长的贡献。同时也要看到，这一轮消费结构升级以买房、装修和买车为消费热点，对房地产投资和重化工业发展的带动作用较强，对资源环境的压力也在加大。如果这些方面的消费需求过于旺盛，对稳定房地产市场、稳定房地产投资、稳定重化工原材料工业的发展，缓解经济增长与资源环境之间的矛盾，将产生负面影响。因此，对消费需求，特别是居民家庭的买房、买车活动，也要注意引导，使之保持稳定。
出口增长预计将逐步趋稳
首先，政府近期采取的限制“两高一资”产品出口等政策措施（分别于4月份、6月份、7月份实施），将越来越明显地发挥作用。据有关估计，全部“两高一资”产品大约占我国整个出口产品近三分之一，今年以来其出口增速明显高于总的出口增速。因此，相关政策的针对性是比较强的。此外，美国经济增速放慢会影响国际贸易量的扩大，对我国一般贸易出口将形成较大制约。
其次，人民币汇率升值步伐逐步加快，对一般贸易出口的约束将进一步显现。
第三，汇率升值和利用外资政策的调整，以及国内土地、劳动力成本的逐步提高，也将逐步约束外商投资增长，进而影响到加工贸易的增长。2003－2006年，加工贸易出口增速由34％降低到22％，今年上半年，继续保持在22％的增长水平，明显低于一般贸易出口增长。预计未来这一态势将继续保持。综合以上情况，预计下半年乃至全年出口增长将稳中趋降。
总结以上分析，可以认为，未来投资、消费、出口三项需求很可能呈现高位趋稳或略有降低的态势。在需求引导下，预计今年经济增长也将高位趋稳或略有降低。在继续坚持控制投资和出口过快增长的前提下，预计经济增长率将略有回落，全年GDP增长率在11％左右。
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